About Risk Based Planning

Normally we know the schedule with one only scenario, one Critical Path, without considering the spread of duration (optimistic to pessimistic), without any consideration of risks that may happen during the execution of the project. As the result, very often we experience delays with almost the same reason and pattern, such as delay on engineering, delay on material delivery, delay on construction, etc. Most of the time, project team member cannot satisfactorily give a good picture of how sure the project can be completed as scheduled, what is the probability of a completion date. Very often, Project Team cannot give a proper explanation of what activities giving the most impact to the schedule, etc.

Project Schedule Risk Assessment is a scientific approach in developing the schedule with the consideration of duration uncertainties and potential risks being considered to each of impacted activities. Critical Path Method of scheduling is still the base for developing the model. Thousands of iteration is conducted to the model.  With this iteration, the project is assumed as being executed thousand times giving different durations and completion dates with different possible critical paths caused by the range of duration uncertainty and risks.

The result is shown in a distribution curve with duration and its frequency showing the probability of the dates. The result will also model the range of Duration Sensitivity, Criticality Index, Duration Cruciality and Schedule Sensitivity Index.

Schedule Risk Assessment will not only be giving the project team one single critical path which may not be the true actual schedule, instead it will give a range of schedule possibilities due to schedule uncertainties and risks. This approach will give advance notice of schedule and critical path possibilities with identified tasks criticality, sensitivity and cruciality which will give a better focus of control to the most critical activities. This approach will give a better preparation of mitigation actions to anticipate the schedule delays due to the schedule uncertainty and risks.

About The Course

The course is designed to discover the basic concept of risk based planning and the way how this approach is implemented in assessing the project schedule. The course will be divided in four major parts: Risk Concept on Schedule, Uncertainty and Risk Identification, Modeling the Schedule, Interpreting and Managing the Result for Optimum Mitigation. This is not software or schedule application training as any software of Schedule Risk Assessment tool can be used to run this exercise.

On the first part, Participant will gain the understanding of Risk Concept that is applicable for Schedule Risk Analysis including how schedule can adopt the risk approach. On the second part, duration estimate approaches, uncertainty definition, risk identification approaches, risk valuation, risk identification prioritization for Schedule Risk Assessment, including workshop strategy for risk identification will be practically explored. On the third part, participant will discover do’s and don’ts in developing schedule model for Schedule Risk Assessment, how to develop the task duration with uncertainties, applying risks to the tasks and developing its risk model. On the last part, participant will discover diagnosis tools to evaluate the schedule risk assessment result. At this session, participant will also discuss the mitigations that need tobe developed to anticipate the risk impacts as prioritized in the assessment result. Communication strategy on how the assessment result and its mitigation shall be conveyed will be discussed to ensure effective planning and implementation is executed properly.

The training is designed in a very simple approach but you will find the basic principles and you will find a full of hands on best practices and exercises so that you will be able to implement and improve it by your-self. It’s Fun but valuable.

Participants Goals

  • Understand the key benefit and goal of Project Schedule Risk Assessment
  • Understand the basic concept of Risk, Risk Assessment, and Schedule Risk Assessment
  • Understand the difference between uncertainty and risk and how they are defined and identified
  • Understand the risk valuation
  • Understand schedule model development
  • Understand risk association to the schedule
  • Understand how to interpret the assessment result
  • Understand how to develop and communicate mitigation


Course Outline

Day-1  Basic Concept of Risk and Risk Identification and Valuation

  • Definition, Characteristic and types of Uncertainties and Risks
  • Risked schedule vs Un-risked schedule
  • Risk matrix and Valuation of Risks
  • Uncertainty definition and estimation
  • Risk Identification, Risk Register and Risk valuation
  • Types of Workshops and Meetings

Day-2 Schedule and Risk Modeling, Interpreting and Mitigation

  • Schedule Model development
  • Risk Modeling on Schedule
  • Risk Assessment results definition and Interpretation
  • Mitigation Development
  • Communication and Commitment